_which_teams_will_win_their_playoff_matches.html

How Prepared Are NHL Teams for the Playoffs?

Comparing NHL Team Records Versus Other Strong Teams

or How To Pick Strong Playoff Teams

You have all seen clubs entering the playoffs with high standings because they have been feasting on their multiple games against the weaker clubs in their division.

But, they don't always perform well once they enter the playoffs because they are no longer facing weak teams.

Our unique NHL Team Standings page (link) on TheHockeyPool.com provides a way to compare team records considering only their performance against STRONG teams.

How do we define strong? Easy - the top 8 teams in each division; that is, those teams currently on track to make the playoffs. If a team makes the playoffs, these are the teams they'll potentially meet in the first three rounds, so how do they perform when facing these teams?

The Strength Charts ONLY count games played against the top 8 teams in the conference, that includes the points, average number of points per game, and then it uses that information to project how many points they'd end the season with if they keep the current pace against the top 8 clubs and played a full 82 game season against only those clubs.

Let's look at the standings as of March 12, 2025 and see what the Strength Chart shows us.

The current Eastern standings are below on the left, and the "Eastern Conference vs. Eastern Conference" Strength Chart is on the right:

EAST CURRENT STANDINGS EAST VS. EAST STRENGTH CHART
# Team GP W L OTL SOL PTS
1 Washington (ME) 65 43 14 5 3 94
2 Florida (AT) 65 40 22 3 0 83
3 Carolina (ME) 65 39 22 2 2 82
4 Toronto (AT) 64 39 22 2 1 81
5 Tampa Bay (AT) 64 37 23 3 1 78
6 New Jersey (ME) 66 35 25 5 1 76
7 Ottawa wc (AT) 64 34 25 3 2 73
8 Columbus wc (ME) 64 31 25 7 1 70
9 Montreal (AT) 64 31 27 4 2 68
10 New York R. (ME) 65 31 28 6 0 68
11 Boston (AT) 66 30 28 7 1 68
12 Detroit (AT) 64 30 28 6 0 66
13 New York I. (ME) 64 29 28 6 1 65
14 Philadelphia (ME) 66 27 31 5 3 62
15 Pittsburgh (ME) 67 26 31 5 5 62
16 Buffalo (AT) 63 25 32 5 1 56
East TeamGamesPointsAvg. PPGSeason Points
Washington 1926 1.37 112.2
Ottawa 1416 1.14 93.7
Tampa Bay 2124 1.14 93.7
Florida 1618 1.12 92.2
Montreal 1921 1.11 90.6
New York I. 1718 1.06 86.8
New Jersey 2122 1.05 85.9
Carolina 2020 1.00 82.0
Toronto 1616 1.00 82.0
Columbus 1513 0.87 71.1
Boston 2219 0.86 70.8
Philadelphia2017 0.85 69.7
Buffalo 1714 0.82 67.5
Detroit 1814 0.78 63.8
New York R. 2014 0.70 57.4
Pittsburgh 1913 0.68 56.1

Washington is currently top in both charts, meaning their record against the top 8 teams in the East is strong, and thus in the playoffs, they seem well set to face any of the other top 8 seeds in the first 3 rounds of the playoffs.

Position number 2 however leads us to a surprise. Both Tampa Bay (currently 5th in the East) and Ottawa (currently 7th) have a better record than seeds #2,#3,#4, and #6 against the top clubs in the East - meaning they may have a better shot at a series win than other clubs in their conference.

And the current 3rd and 4th place clubs, Carolina and Toronto drop to 8th and 9th place against the strong clubs in the East. That's probably not great news for those of us hoping that this might finally be Toronto's year.

And Montreal and the poor Islanders have great records against the top 8 teams in the East, showing up at positions 5 and 6 in the strength chart. But their current out-of-playoff standings seem to indicate that they struggle against weaker teams.

In the West let's look at the Western Standings compared to the Western team's records against the top 8 teams in the West, again as of March 12, 2025:

WEST CURRENT STANDINGSWEST VS. WEST STRENGTH CHART
# Team GP W L OTL SOL PTS
1 Winnipeg (CE) 66 45 17 3 1 94
2 Dallas (CE) 64 42 20 1 1 86
3 Vegas (PA) 64 38 19 5 2 83
4 Colorado (CE) 66 39 24 1 2 81
5 Edmonton (PA) 64 37 23 3 1 78
6 Minnesota wc (CE) 65 37 24 2 2 78
7 L.A. (PA) 63 34 20 6 3 77
8 Calgary wc (PA) 63 30 23 9 1 70
9 Vancouver (PA) 64 29 24 10 1 69
10 St. Louis (CE) 65 31 27 6 1 69
11 Utah (CE) 64 28 25 8 3 67
12 Anaheim (PA) 64 28 29 5 2 63
13 Seattle (PA) 65 27 34 1 3 58
14 Nashville (CE) 64 25 32 7 0 57
15 Chicago (CE) 65 20 36 7 2 49
16 San Jose (PA) 66 17 40 5 4 43
West TeamGamesPointsAvg. PPGSeason Points
Vegas 1824 1.33 109.3
Winnipeg 1722 1.29 106.1
L.A. 1620 1.25 102.5
Dallas 1620 1.25 102.5
Edmonton 1617 1.06 87.1
Colorado 1718 1.06 86.8
Nashville 2221 0.95 78.3
Calgary 1413 0.93 76.1
St. Louis 2220 0.91 74.5
Utah 2220 0.91 74.5
Vancouver 1816 0.89 72.9
Anaheim 2016 0.80 65.6
Chicago 2318 0.78 64.2
Seattle 1711 0.65 53.1
Minnesota 1810 0.56 45.6
San Jose 207 0.35 28.7

There is a bit of re-ordering of the teams, but not quite as dramatic as in the East, a few positions up and down - EXCEPT for Minnesota and Nashville which almost completely swap places! The Wild's record against the top 8 in the West is not great, just 10 points in 18 games. Whereas, Nashville has managed 21 points in 22 games, nearly a point a game. Given that, if Minnesota makes the playoffs, I'm not likely to draft from them.

The EAST/WEST vs. EAST/WEST and WEST vs. WEST charts are followed by the combined record against the top 8 in both Conferences, which may simply provide a perspective on overall playoff readiness. Again, here is the strength chart as of March 12, 2025:

RECORD VERSUS LEAGUE STRENGTH (TOP 8 TEAMS IN BOTH CONFERENCES)

East TeamGamesPointsAvg. PPGSeason Points
Washington 3244 1.38 112.8
Tampa Bay 3540 1.14 93.7
Florida 3236 1.12 92.2
Carolina 3538 1.09 89.0
Toronto 2931 1.07 87.7
New York I. 3030 1.00 82.0
Ottawa 2928 0.97 79.2
Montreal 3432 0.94 77.2
Detroit 3028 0.93 76.5
Columbus 2927 0.93 76.3
Boston 3632 0.89 72.9
New Jersey 3226 0.81 66.6
Buffalo 3024 0.80 65.6
Pittsburgh 3426 0.76 62.7
Philadelphia3525 0.71 58.6
New York R. 3122 0.71 58.2
West TeamGamesPointsAvg. PPGSeason Points
Winnipeg 3140 1.29 105.8
Vegas 3238 1.19 97.4
L.A. 2934 1.17 96.1
Colorado 3034 1.13 92.9
Dallas 3134 1.10 89.9
Vancouver 3233 1.03 84.6
Minnesota 3130 0.97 79.4
Edmonton 3129 0.94 76.7
St. Louis 3835 0.92 75.5
Anaheim 3429 0.85 69.9
Calgary 2823 0.82 67.4
Utah 3528 0.80 65.6
Nashville 3527 0.77 63.3
Chicago 3627 0.75 61.5
San Jose 3319 0.58 47.2
Seattle 3318 0.55 44.7

What I would take from this is that New Jersey, Calgary, and Columbus are perhaps the most unprepared to face the toughest teams if they make the playoffs.

Is any of this true or valuable? Our next blog will go back to look at when and where and if this chart had any correlation to the actual results of previous playoff seasons.

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